Key Concepts To Understanding Value Betting
When someone first gets involved in betting they often have a lot of different ideas about what they think it is. If they hear the term value betting it might go completely over their head or they may discount its full meaning. Professional betters understand that this is the key to long-term success. Here we’ll look at some key concepts to help you understand value betting.
Why Value Bets May Appear Like Long Shots
Someone who likes to gamble just for the thrill of it will typically go with what they think are the odds so that they have a chance at winning. Betting on a team that everyone else says has no chance just doesn’t make sense to this type of gambler. This is why it’s often hard for beginners and chance gamblers to understand the underlying concept of value betting.
There is a substantial difference between a team that has a realistic chance of winning and one that has a great chance of outperforming the odds. This type of gambling requires understanding the odds placed by bookmakers and then identifying opportunities to outperform those odds. When you first start doing this type of betting it will appear that you’re placing a bet on a team that has no chance. As your skill grows you’ll begin to trust in your system and as long as you are patient and can follow a good strategy then you’ll come out on top.
Learning to place value bets is transitioning from someone who is simply a sports fan and enjoys the thrill of gambling, to someone who is becoming a serious and professional bettor. When you first start putting a substantial amount of money down on a team which has no reasonable way to win, it will give you goosebumps. But once you learn how to do this strategy correctly then you’ll have great confidence that it is the right way to go.
Very often the way the odds are explained is with using the toss of a coin. Statistically, if a coin is tossed an infinite amount of times it will land half of the time on heads and the other half on tails. This means that if you could find a bookie that would offer you odds of 2.1 on either heads or tails then you could take that as a value bet. Of course, a bookie will never deliberately offer you such a situation because it would mean they’re going to lose money.
The average bookie would try to offer you odds of 1.9 on either heads or tails and this would have a value of -5 %. This means if they take in $1,000 in bets they’ll pay out 900 of that and keep $100 as their commission or what is sometimes called juice. In every case, the bookie is going to be trying to set the odds in their favor. This means as a professional bettor you have to find the value bets that allow you to make money on the odds.
In the coin tossing example, it would mean that you would want to find a bookie who would be willing to offer you 2.1. because statistically, the coin will land 50% of the time on heads and the other 50% of the time on tails which gives a ratio of 2.0. If a bookie is willing to give you 2.1 that translates into a probability of it landing on the one side at 47.62% which is less than the actual 50% chance which makes this a betting opportunity where you can make money.
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Identifying Real World Value Bets
Find an online value bet calculator which can help you make the calculations but ultimately you will need to develop the skill of understanding the odds and how they relate to various teams on which they’ve been placed. It will take a bit of time and practice. In the beginning, you should specialize to speed up the time it takes you to get proficient.
If there is a particular sport or tournament that you are familiar with and enjoy then that’s a good place to start. In time you’ll be able to take the experience you gain by betting on teams and leagues you know and you’ll be able to apply it to other sports where you are less familiar. At first, you may think you have to be some kind of math whiz but really it’s simply a matter of understanding probability.
Since in the beginning, you will be dealing with sports and teams that you are very familiar with then you should start by coming up with your own odds. Do this before you look at the odds given by bookies. The odds you set should be your own and not based on anyone else’s opinion.
When you first start placing odds you will need to do it as if you are the bookie. This means that you need to consider what you know about the teams and then determine a strategy that would allow you to consistently win based on the odds. When you do this you will then look and see what the bookies are actually offering and if you’re on target, you will find that if the odds were based on your ability to win then the bookie should be opposite of yours. If you were basing the odds so that others could make bets with you and you would still come out a winner then the bookie should have similar odds to what you had determined.
As you begin this practice and you get closer and closer to making odds similar to the bookies then you can start looking for opportunities. When your sense of the odds are in line and you find opportunities where a bookie has placed odds that are different than what you think they are then you have an opportunity for value betting.
Track And Review Your Results
By tracking and reviewing your results you’ll be able to see how you’re doing over time. As you improve your instincts and grow your experience then you should start to see consistent results. When you notice certain situations that you did right then keep doing it. When you find situations where you calculated wrong, then find out what caused the miscalculation and correct it. As someone trying to use this as a professional method to earn consistent profits, you should expect it to take time and effort to develop the necessary skill set.